Andrea Tantaros

Obama Losing Support with Independents

2009-07-09T07:15:00-04:00

When it comes to winning elections, Independents are a key demographic. Obama won the group overwhelmingly in 2008 and since then pundits and pollsters have been sharply focused on whether their support stays with the President. In fact, it’s a talking point that Democrats emphatically shout during television appearances because they know when Independents start to break, it spells trouble.

Trouble, it seems, is spelled G-A-L-L-U-P. Their latest polling shows a drop among support with Independents down from 63 percent in May, to 59 percent.

Digging deeper into the reason for the dip, the larger undercurrent is spending. Polling shows Indy’s weren’t happy about that issue when the Democrats took over the house in 2006.

But the main concern now among that voter group is results – they’re solution oriented (why they voted for him in the first place) and right now they’re doubting his performance for two reasons:

1) The stimulus is not working. Period.

2) They’re uneasy about the lack of checks and balances on the current Democrat dominated congress and White House. They may have given the left the keys to the kingdom, but they’re not seeing the oversight they feel they should get.

The best examples of this are the financial bailout and GITMO. Independents are starting to ask if it was really needed because ultimately GM slipped into bankruptcy and whether anyone thought this whole thing through.

(I can answer both: No, and no). When this becomes more apparent, expect Obama's numbers with Independents to dive even more.

Is Health Care Ending the Obama Honeymoon?

2009-06-22T12:11:14-04:00

In the last two weeks we've seen President Obama endure treatment that he isn't exactly accustomed to: harsh criticism from his own party, a significant slip in the polls, and unfavorable headlines instead of glowing, inflated puff pieces. It seems that biting off more than he can chew when it comes to health care, government intervention into the private sector, and ballooning deficits have left him choking in what might be the first major sea change as his policy positions have started to eclipse his personal popularity.

Reality is creeping onto front pages everywhere. The Wall Street Journal recently reported "Rising Doubts Threaten to Overshadow Obama's Agenda;" Politico's above the fold headline trumpeted "Obama Health Care Plan Imperiled;" and the CBS News/New York Times poll inspired this headline in the paper: "Poll Finds Unease with Obama on Key Issues."

The Times specifically found "a distinct gulf between Mr. Obama's overall standing and how some of his key initiatives are viewed, with fewer than half of Americans saying they approve of how he has handled health care and the effort to save General Motors and Chrysler. A majority of people said his policies have had either no effect yet on improving the economy or had made it worse, underscoring how his political strength still rests on faith in his leadership rather than concrete results."

However, that faith is diminishing.

Though Obama's personal popularity hasn't plumetted (yet) but there are signs it's starting to suffer. According to last week's Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, "Thirty two percent of the nation's voters now strongly approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-four percent (34 percent) strongly disapprove -- giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -2. That's the President's lowest rating to date and the first time the Presidential Approval Index has fallen below zero for Obama." Health care seems to be Obama's toughest challenge yet, and the impetus for the awakening. There are some political maneuvers that would that prevent politicians from being able to thread the needle and health care is one of them. If the public wasn't paying attention before, they are now as health care affects every single American. Obama's mantra might be change, but when it comes to individual's medical treatment, change isn't usually embraced. Especially change that's arrived this quickly, and is so costly and drastic.

The Obama administration has yet to tell us why the government can successfully run universal health care when we can't even run the socialized health programs we already have in place: Medicare (which is hemorrhaging money) and Medicaid (which is putting many states in the red). As new reports surface that Obama lacks the support in Congress to pass this behemoth bill, expect it -- and his popularity numbers -- to fall apart, and fast. Look for a White House that will begin to scale back expectations. Still, the lack of details and support will likely quickly trigger a collapse in confidence.

When the economy is in a recession, when spending is already out of control and when inflation is rising -- not even a popular president can ram through reforms at rapid pace. Without the protection from his own party, the support of a patient public and a complacent media with a man-crush, the politician who has been billed as "untouchable" will soon be revealed for what he is: an amateur who lacks the credible answers and ability to really lead. In other words, the honeymoon is almost over, history will point to health care as the reason.

Indepdendents Staying Anything But

2008-09-09T23:52:00-04:00

This just in: John McCain's 6 percentage-point bounce in voter support spanning the Republican National Convention is largely explained by political independents shifting to him in fairly big numbers, from 40% pre-convention to 52% post-convention in Gallup Poll Daily tracking. Up until that point both candidates had been in a dead heat, hovering at percentages in the high 40's.

Why is this important? Because this group, arguably, is how the election will be won. This demographic is particularly important for John McCain because self-identified Democrats now outnumber Republicans.

So what gives? One theory for the John McCain surge in likely voters is that Obama still hasn't closed the deal with Hillary supporters. White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obamas favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift thats one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences. Couple that with the shift in Independents, enthusiasm in the conservative base thanks to Palin the pit bull and the Mac boasts an overall lead with likely voters.

These numbers spell trouble for the Obama campaign. Voters were uneasy about handing the Senator the keys to the White House before McCain - Palin but had no compelling reason to let the Republicans keep them. It appears they are changing their minds.

Why Barry Can't Crack 50

2008-07-29T20:41:00-04:00

Latest Gallup tracking poll shows Obama leading McCain 45-44. With the Republican brand in the dumpster and the winds of change howling, McCain should be eating Obama's dust. He's not.

After accomplishing what Republicans never could (stopping the Clinton machine) and fresh off of a successful overseas trip, Obama still can't crack 50 percent.

One theory is that voters aren't thrilled with either candidate, however the lack of a lion's share of support for Barack is eclipsed by the media's hysteria. There is a likely uncertainty in the electorate when it comes to Obama, an unknown. A Fox News poll recently showed a third of Independents still undecided.

This is good news for McCain, who still has a fighting chance. As long as he keeps pushing out gimmicks and unserious messages (the fake press passes for the media not covering Obama's world tour, the techno video comparing Obama to David Hasselhoff, etc.) his chances lessen. Lambasting Obama for being a "celebrity" while comparing him to Paris Hilton is not an effective theme. It's infantile, in fact. This is campaign for the Presidency of the United States, not class President of Ridgemont High.

We know what Obama's real weaknesses are. The low poll numbers reflect that. What voters don't know are John McCain's strengths. And there are many.

Campaigns can go on the offensive, and often go negative. But they must give Americans a reason to vote for their candidate. That's what we have yet to see from the McCain campaign. We're waiting.