The lesson thus far in the 2010 midterms: If you've supported Barack Obama and the Democratic leadership in their quest to vastly expand the size of government, you're toast. Despite the White House spin, anti-incumbent is not the movement, anti-liberal is. And though you've heard and read over and over that this election is about throwing all the bums out, that line is merely a carefully crafted talking point from a politico whose party is in peril, being pushed by a complacent and largely leftist media because it is their agenda that's being rejected.

From now until November you'll hear Democrats try to deflect the wins of outsiders and Tea Party candidates like Rand Paul as merely a vote against Washington. While that's partly true, it's the prevalent D.C. culture of fiscal abuse and empowering government - the core of liberalism - that's the problem, not just the fact that these candidates happen to be sitting in office and reside in the Beltway.

Incumbency is the symptom, government intervention is the disease.

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Today, current Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter and Congressman Joe Sestak face off in the state’s Democratic primary. Polls show the candidates in a dead heat. The number of undecideds is still in the double digits, meaning that roughly one third of eligible voters have yet to make up their minds. With momentum clearly with Sestak, today could be the day that Pennsylvanians send their longest serving Senator packing. Here’s what that outcome would mean.

1. This cycle is anti-incumbent and anti-liberal. 

Many are claiming that both Democrats and Republicans are feeling the pressure of an anti-Washington sentiment, and while that’s true, it should be noted that “incumbent” isn’t the only dirty word this election cycle. Fiscally liberal members – be they Republicans (look at Bennett of Utah and Crist's troubles in Florida) or Democrats (Corzine and Scott Brown challenger Martha Coakley) face real challenges to stay alive. Case in point: fiscally conservative Democrats aren’t facing the same troubles as a David Obey would be.

Specter is evidence of this anti-liberal incumbent revolt. Voters in the Keystone State are exhausted with his embrace of big government, from the stimulus to the healthcare bill -- a decision that's causing him troubles with seniors. Pennsylvania has the second oldest population and Specter’s embrace of the takeover, which cuts billions from Medicare and will ultimately lead to rationing, has them petrified.

Watch the liberal media continue to chalk up any Democratic losses tonight and til Election Day up to an anti-incumbent movement when the focus is more about a repudiation of their agenda, and thus President Obama.

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On Tuesday, voters in Massachusetts, a traditionally liberal stronghold, gave the Democrats their most devastating blow in ages by electing a long-shot Republican to the U.S. Senate. Just months earlier, New Jersey delivered a similar outcome in its gubernatorial election.

Both moves indicate that some states, including deeply blue New York, are poised to see party shifts in the next round of elections. With political analysts insisting that if it can happen in the Bay State it can happen in New York, and Republicans planning to aggressively pursue coveted seats in blue states, the left should be panicked, particularly when you look at the similarities.

Both Massachusetts and New York have largely left the Democratic Party in the driver's seat for years. The result has been overtaxing, overspending, out-of-control deficits and painfully high unemployment, triggering a palpable disgust across the electorate.

One key dissatisfied demographic group, in particular, has been the catalyst for the recent sea change: independents. Both Massachusetts and New York boast a significant number of unaffiliated voters. Though Democrats outnumber Republicans in both states, more than 51% of Massachusetts voters are unenrolled, permitting them to vote for either party. New York has not only the Independence Party - which has its own line on the ballot - but also a large group of unaffiliated voters who tend to swing in elections.

It's these swing voters, who voted for Scott Brown by a margin of 73% to 23%, who propelled him to victory in Massachusetts. They're also the group that broke largely for Barack Obama in 2008, and one that is now largely breaking away, displaying that nothing can be taken for granted.

In perhaps the boldest display of power lust and personal gain the Keystone State has seen in decades, lifelong faux Republican Senator Arlen Specter has officially shown his true colors and switched to the Democratic Party. But the only party he has really been concerned with for the last 19 years has been his own, and making sure it doesn’t come to an end.

For almost the past twenty years Republicans have watched in awe as Specter has rebuffed the GOP on some of the most serious and sensitive issues by siding with Democrats. A maverick? No. Manic? Maybe. An opportunist? Yes. The career politician has voted almost 60 percent of the time with the opposing party. These highly calculated snubs have only earned him the ire of Republicans, but also the distrust of Dems. Until today, he always had an “R” behind his name, after all.

Can the ultimate, finger in the wind, luke warm legislator actually win a Keystone State election in November?

Specter saw the writing on the wall when it came to his re-election. He knew he couldn’t beat the younger, more politically pure, fiscally savvy former Congressman Pat Toomey who announced just a few weeks ago. Specter was trailing some 20 plus points in the Pennsylvania primary last week according to some polls. His crucial votes on the stimulus and the massive Wall Street and Detroit bailouts sealed his fate with a Republican electorate that has been increasingly dissatisfied with the rapid growth of government. Plus, with Republicans defecting in droves to vote in the Democrats’ 2008 presidential primary, the pool has been skimmed of its lukewarm constituency. The current crop of registered Pennsylvania Republicans leans more conservative.

This begs the question: can the ultimate, finger in the wind, luke warm legislator actually win a Keystone State election in November? Not if he faces a tough primary challenge from a moderate; and in Pennsylvania there are plenty gunning for his spot. Specter likely cut a deal to ensure he’d have the backing and the funding of the national Democratic Party. But Pennsylvania is still somewhat of a purple place. Much to Obama’s dismay, many Pennsylvanians cling to our guns and our religion, unlike Specter who clings to power. Candidates like Senator Bob Casey, a socially conservative, left leaning politician has an easier shot than a turncoat, two decade Republican turned Democrat. Specter might be able to beat Toomey in a general election, but the he’ll have to face the fight of his life to get there.

Nobody wants to hear of people losing their jobs in these trying times. But when it comes to Arlen Specter, his political unemployment might just be the greatest boost Pennsylvania has seen in decades — no matter what the party.

Former Pennsylvania Congressman Pat Toomey almost inched out a victory against long-term Washington fixture and faux Republican Arlen Specter in 2004. It was one of the most expensive primary campaigns in U.S. history.

A mere 17,000 votes separated the two out of the 1 million votes cast. That was less than two percentage points.

And here comes the rematch. On Tax Day, Toomey, who just stepped down as president of The Club for Growth, formally announced he'll yet again attempt to unseat the Keystone State's senior U.S. senator.

Specter already is sweating. Just the hint of a Toomey run had Specter running negative campaign ads that skirted, if not outright distorted, the truth. One thing is crystal clear -- Arlen Specter is scared. And he should be.

Let's look at his voting record.

Specter consistently has voted for increased government spending and a liberal agenda on social, labor, immigration and national security policies. In just the past few months, Specter voted in favor of the unprecedented and outrageous Wall Street and auto company bailouts and the massive "stimulus" bill better characterized as "spendulus."

For three decades Specter has received hundreds of thousands of dollars from party political committees like the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Republican National Committee. These organizations raise money from Republican donors across the country who give to ensure that candidates who will vote to protect and defend Republican principles in Congress are supported.

But Specter, in a repeated exercise of what can only be termed temerarious arrogance, has done just the opposite.

On the most serious and substantive issues of the day, he often has thumbed his nose at the GOP and voted with the Left.

Manic? Yes. A maverick? No.

Toomey, on the other hand, is the model of conservative consistency. He possesses a refreshing depth and common sense on fiscal issues. There isn't a wasteful bone in his body. It's indeed a rare trait on either side of the aisle these days.

Toomey doesn't require public opinion polls to tell him what to say or a focus group to tell him what to feel. A proponent of term limits, Toomey kept his promise to Pennsylvania voters and served only three terms in the U.S. House of Representatives.

By virtue of that promise, he never was beholden to special interests or became "institutionalized" in the often spendthrift ways of Washington. The people were his first priority.

In stark contrast, Arlen Specter has drawn a salary from taxpayers for most of his adult life.

Pat Toomey is firmly grounded, reliable and smart -- a role model as a father and a man with a genuine conscience.Working for and among politicians for almost a decade (including Toomey), I've seen the best and the worst and Toomey is one of the good guys.

Specter might boast the support of the Washington establishment in this bout but let's not forget what direction that same crowd has taken the GOP. With Republicans defecting in droves to vote in the Democrats' 2008 presidential primary, the pool has been skimmed of its lukewarm constituency. The current crop of registered Pennsylvania Republicans leans more conservative. And that gives Toomey an advantage in a primary when many on the right are furious at the government's drastic leftward lurch.

As politicians continue to reward companies that have managed themselves poorly, people who have made bad decisions and executives who have abused power, it's time Pennsylvania elected a senator who will put an end to a wasteful Washington full of "leaders" who refuse to listen. They spend the public's money with abandon and rob us of our future by strapping us with crushing debt that will saddle generations to come.

Nobody wants to hear of people losing their jobs in these trying times. But when it comes to Arlen Specter, his political unemployment might just be the greatest boost Pennsylvania has seen in decades.

As the great orator and, yes, Democrat William Jennings Bryan reminded in a Washington speech 110 years ago, "Destiny is not a matter of chance, it is a matter of choice; it is not a thing to be waited for, it is a thing to be achieved."

Pennsylvania Republicans can choose destiny and achieve a great thing by retiring Arlen Specter in the 2010 spring primary. They're looking for a real leader and Pat Toomey is the go-to guy.